Estimate seedlings to order, expected survivors, replacement needs, and initial plus projected replacement costs from your acreage, stocking target, survival estimate, and quotes.
Cost details
Advanced options
Calculation details
Table of contents
How to use our Reforestation Seedling Survival and Cost Calculator
- Enter Plantable area after removing roads, buffers, drainage areas, rocks, and other land that will not be planted.
- Enter Initial seedlings to plant, Target surviving trees, and Expected survival rate from your planting plan or planning estimate.
- Copy quote amounts into Seedling price, Initial planting labor, and Site preparation.
- Open Advanced options only if you plan to plant extra seedlings at the start or have a separate replacement quote.
- Click Calculate, then compare Expected surviving trees per acre with your target and check whether Projected replacement planting cost fits the project budget.
Definitions
Plantable area: Acres that will actually receive seedlings after excluded land is removed.
Initial seedlings to plant: The planned number planted per acre at the start of the project.
Target surviving trees: The desired number of living trees per acre after establishment mortality.
Expected survival rate: The estimated percentage of initially planted seedlings expected to remain alive at the evaluation point.
Projected stocking gap: Target surviving trees for the site minus expected surviving trees. A positive gap is a shortage; a negative gap is a projected surplus.
Replacement installed price: The combined cost per replacement seedling, including the seedling and installation work.
Common mistakes and quick fixes
Mistake: Entering the whole property size as Plantable area even though roads, buffers, or wet areas cannot be planted.
Fix: Enter only usable acres in Plantable area.
Mistake: Using Target surviving trees as the same number as Initial seedlings to plant without checking the survival plan.
Fix: Enter the planned day-one density in Initial seedlings to plant and the post-survival goal in Target surviving trees.
Mistake: Treating Expected survival rate as an extra order percentage.
Fix: Enter the expected percent of planted seedlings that survive; use Extra seedlings planted upfront (percent) only for seedlings intentionally planted at the start.
Mistake: Putting planting labor into Seedling price and also entering it in Initial planting labor.
Fix: Keep the nursery amount in Seedling price and the contractor amount in Initial planting labor so costs are not counted twice.
Mistake: Entering a whole-project site-preparation bid in Site preparation.
Fix: Divide the applicable bid by the applicable acres first, then enter the per-plantable-acre amount in Site preparation.
Mistake: Assuming a blank Replacement installed price means replacement costs are ignored.
Fix: Leave it blank only if the initial Seedling price plus Initial planting labor is a reasonable replacement installed price.
Limitations & Key Assumptions / Boundary Conditions
- The calculator uses one survival percentage for the whole plantable area. Actual survival can differ by species, stock type, soil, weather, planting date, browsing pressure, and microsite.
- Expected surviving trees is a planning average, not a count of specific living trees. Field inspection determines the real replacement need.
- Replacement seedlings needed are based on the entered target and are rounded up to a whole seedling. Operational minimums, access costs, and contractor mobilization charges are not included.
- Site preparation is multiplied by Plantable area. Confirm that the quote actually uses plantable acres rather than gross project acres.
- The total excludes maintenance, herbicide work, protection, irrigation, overhead, financing, grants, rebates, taxes, warranty reimbursements, and other project-specific charges.
- A blank Replacement installed price uses Seedling price plus Initial planting labor. Enter a replacement-specific quote when later planting will cost a different amount.
Methodology
Calculation steps
The calculator first finds the base number of seedlings from plantable acres and the planned initial density. Any Extra seedlings planted upfront (percent) is added before the order is rounded up.
base initial seedlings = plantable area x initial seedlings to plant
initial seedlings to order = round up(base initial seedlings x (1 + upfront supplement / 100))
It applies Expected survival rate to the whole initial order. It then compares expected survivors with the site-wide target. A positive stocking gap creates a replacement need; a projected surplus does not create negative replacements.
expected surviving trees = initial seedlings to order x expected survival rate / 100
target surviving trees for the site = plantable area x target surviving trees
projected stocking gap = target surviving trees for the site - expected surviving trees
replacement seedlings needed = round up(the larger of 0 and projected stocking gap)
Initial planting cost combines seedling purchase, initial planting labor, and site preparation. Replacement cost uses Replacement installed price when entered; otherwise it uses Seedling price plus Initial planting labor.
initial planting cost = initial seedlings to order x (seedling price + initial planting labor) + plantable area x site preparation
projected replacement planting cost = replacement seedlings needed x replacement installed price used
total projected establishment cost = initial planting cost + projected replacement planting cost
Worked example
For 10 plantable acres, 500 initial seedlings per acre, a target of 450 surviving trees per acre, and 70 percent expected survival, the initial order is 5,000 seedlings and expected survivors are 3,500 trees. The target is 4,500 trees, so the projected gap is 1,000 trees. With a $0.50 seedling price, $0.30 initial planting labor, and $100 site preparation per acre, initial planting cost is $5,000. Using the $0.80 fallback replacement installed price adds $800, for a total projected establishment cost of $5,800.