The quarter-end month average RBA cash-rate target compared with year-ended headline CPI inflation and an ex-post real-rate approximation.
Interactive chart
Nominal target, year-ended CPI inflation and their arithmetic spread.
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Showing All series with 3 available series.
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Key findings
- In 2026-Q2, the cash-rate target was 4.35% and year-ended CPI inflation was 3.94%.
- The resulting ex-post real-rate approximation was 0.41 percentage points in 2026-Q2.
- The lowest approximation was -5.48 percentage points in 2022-Q2.
- The highest approximation was 7.92 percentage points in 1990-Q3.
How the series interact
This comparison describes measured relationships and timing; it does not treat co-movement as proof of causation.
- The real-rate approximation crossed zero 12 times from 1990-Q3 to 2026-Q2.
- The correlation of quarter-to-quarter changes was 0.33 over 1990-Q3 to 2026-Q2; this is descriptive and does not establish causation.
Data table
| Quarter | Cash-rate target (%) | Year-ended CPI inflation (%) | Cash target minus CPI (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990-Q3 | 14% | 6.08% | 7.92 pp |
| 1990-Q4 | 12.58% | 6.86% | 5.72 pp |
| 1991-Q1 | 12% | 4.84% | 7.16 pp |
| 1991-Q2 | 10.5% | 3.41% | 7.09 pp |
| 1991-Q3 | 9.55% | 3.18% | 6.37 pp |
| 1991-Q4 | 8.5% | 1.51% | 6.99 pp |
| 1992-Q1 | 7.5% | 1.71% | 5.79 pp |
| 1992-Q2 | 6.5% | 1.22% | 5.28 pp |
| 1992-Q3 | 5.75% | 0.75% | 5 pp |
| 1992-Q4 | 5.75% | 0.26% | 5.49 pp |
| 1993-Q1 | 5.6% | 1.2% | 4.4 pp |
| 1993-Q2 | 5.25% | 1.86% | 3.39 pp |
| 1993-Q3 | 4.75% | 2.24% | 2.51 pp |
| 1993-Q4 | 4.75% | 1.97% | 2.78 pp |
| 1994-Q1 | 4.75% | 1.38% | 3.37 pp |
| 1994-Q2 | 4.75% | 1.75% | 3 pp |
| 1994-Q3 | 5.5% | 1.91% | 3.59 pp |
| 1994-Q4 | 7.05% | 2.54% | 4.51 pp |
| 1995-Q1 | 7.5% | 3.89% | 3.61 pp |
| 1995-Q2 | 7.5% | 4.49% | 3.01 pp |
| 1995-Q3 | 7.5% | 5.09% | 2.41 pp |
| 1995-Q4 | 7.5% | 5.04% | 2.46 pp |
| 1996-Q1 | 7.5% | 3.74% | 3.76 pp |
| 1996-Q2 | 7.5% | 3.09% | 4.41 pp |
| 1996-Q3 | 7% | 2.13% | 4.87 pp |
| 1996-Q4 | 6.18% | 1.53% | 4.65 pp |
| 1997-Q1 | 6% | 1.26% | 4.74 pp |
| 1997-Q2 | 5.5% | 0.35% | 5.15 pp |
| 1997-Q3 | 5% | -0.32% | 5.32 pp |
| 1997-Q4 | 5% | -0.26% | 5.26 pp |
| 1998-Q1 | 5% | -0.15% | 5.15 pp |
| 1998-Q2 | 5% | 0.67% | 4.33 pp |
| 1998-Q3 | 5% | 1.36% | 3.64 pp |
| 1998-Q4 | 4.76% | 1.55% | 3.21 pp |
| 1999-Q1 | 4.75% | 1.23% | 3.52 pp |
| 1999-Q2 | 4.75% | 1.09% | 3.66 pp |
| 1999-Q3 | 4.75% | 1.73% | 3.02 pp |
| 1999-Q4 | 5% | 1.83% | 3.17 pp |
| 2000-Q1 | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.7 pp |
| 2000-Q2 | 6% | 3.13% | 2.87 pp |
| 2000-Q3 | 6.25% | 6.01% | 0.24 pp |
| 2000-Q4 | 6.25% | 5.82% | 0.43 pp |
| 2001-Q1 | 5.55% | 5.99% | -0.44 pp |
| 2001-Q2 | 5% | 6.07% | -1.07 pp |
| 2001-Q3 | 4.78% | 2.53% | 2.25 pp |
| 2001-Q4 | 4.28% | 3.13% | 1.15 pp |
| 2002-Q1 | 4.25% | 2.96% | 1.29 pp |
| 2002-Q2 | 4.72% | 2.84% | 1.88 pp |
| 2002-Q3 | 4.75% | 3.26% | 1.49 pp |
| 2002-Q4 | 4.75% | 3% | 1.75 pp |
| 2003-Q1 | 4.75% | 3.41% | 1.34 pp |
| 2003-Q2 | 4.75% | 2.67% | 2.08 pp |
| 2003-Q3 | 4.75% | 2.56% | 2.19 pp |
| 2003-Q4 | 5.23% | 2.41% | 2.82 pp |
| 2004-Q1 | 5.25% | 2% | 3.25 pp |
| 2004-Q2 | 5.25% | 2.47% | 2.78 pp |
| 2004-Q3 | 5.25% | 2.31% | 2.94 pp |
| 2004-Q4 | 5.25% | 2.55% | 2.7 pp |
| 2005-Q1 | 5.49% | 2.33% | 3.16 pp |
| 2005-Q2 | 5.5% | 2.47% | 3.03 pp |
| 2005-Q3 | 5.5% | 3.06% | 2.44 pp |
| 2005-Q4 | 5.5% | 2.81% | 2.69 pp |
| 2006-Q1 | 5.5% | 3% | 2.5 pp |
| 2006-Q2 | 5.75% | 4.01% | 1.74 pp |
| 2006-Q3 | 6% | 3.9% | 2.1 pp |
| 2006-Q4 | 6.25% | 3.25% | 3 pp |
| 2007-Q1 | 6.25% | 2.45% | 3.8 pp |
| 2007-Q2 | 6.25% | 2.1% | 4.15 pp |
| 2007-Q3 | 6.5% | 1.89% | 4.61 pp |
| 2007-Q4 | 6.75% | 2.96% | 3.79 pp |
| 2008-Q1 | 7.22% | 4.26% | 2.96 pp |
| 2008-Q2 | 7.25% | 4.48% | 2.77 pp |
| 2008-Q3 | 7.02% | 4.97% | 2.05 pp |
| 2008-Q4 | 4.35% | 3.67% | 0.68 pp |
| 2009-Q1 | 3.25% | 2.41% | 0.84 pp |
| 2009-Q2 | 3% | 1.45% | 1.55 pp |
| 2009-Q3 | 3% | 1.23% | 1.77 pp |
| 2009-Q4 | 3.74% | 2.1% | 1.64 pp |
| 2010-Q1 | 3.98% | 2.94% | 1.04 pp |
| 2010-Q2 | 4.5% | 3.05% | 1.45 pp |
| 2010-Q3 | 4.5% | 2.82% | 1.68 pp |
| 2010-Q4 | 4.75% | 2.67% | 2.08 pp |
| 2011-Q1 | 4.75% | 3.3% | 1.45 pp |
| 2011-Q2 | 4.75% | 3.62% | 1.13 pp |
| 2011-Q3 | 4.75% | 3.49% | 1.26 pp |
| 2011-Q4 | 4.3% | 3.09% | 1.21 pp |
| 2012-Q1 | 4.25% | 1.58% | 2.67 pp |
| 2012-Q2 | 3.54% | 1.18% | 2.36 pp |
| 2012-Q3 | 3.5% | 1.95% | 1.55 pp |
| 2012-Q4 | 3.03% | 2.21% | 0.82 pp |
| 2013-Q1 | 3% | 2.49% | 0.51 pp |
| 2013-Q2 | 2.75% | 2.35% | 0.4 pp |
| 2013-Q3 | 2.5% | 2.21% | 0.29 pp |
| 2013-Q4 | 2.5% | 2.68% | -0.18 pp |
| 2014-Q1 | 2.5% | 2.94% | -0.44 pp |
| 2014-Q2 | 2.5% | 3.07% | -0.57 pp |
| 2014-Q3 | 2.5% | 2.26% | 0.24 pp |
| 2014-Q4 | 2.5% | 1.72% | 0.78 pp |
| 2015-Q1 | 2.25% | 1.31% | 0.94 pp |
| 2015-Q2 | 2% | 1.52% | 0.48 pp |
| 2015-Q3 | 2% | 1.49% | 0.51 pp |
| 2015-Q4 | 2% | 1.69% | 0.31 pp |
| 2016-Q1 | 2% | 1.29% | 0.71 pp |
| 2016-Q2 | 1.75% | 1.02% | 0.73 pp |
| 2016-Q3 | 1.5% | 1.33% | 0.17 pp |
| 2016-Q4 | 1.5% | 1.47% | 0.03 pp |
| 2017-Q1 | 1.5% | 2.14% | -0.64 pp |
| 2017-Q2 | 1.5% | 1.9% | -0.4 pp |
| 2017-Q3 | 1.5% | 1.8% | -0.3 pp |
| 2017-Q4 | 1.5% | 1.95% | -0.45 pp |
| 2018-Q1 | 1.5% | 1.93% | -0.43 pp |
| 2018-Q2 | 1.5% | 2.09% | -0.59 pp |
| 2018-Q3 | 1.5% | 1.91% | -0.41 pp |
| 2018-Q4 | 1.5% | 1.76% | -0.26 pp |
| 2019-Q1 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2 pp |
| 2019-Q2 | 1.28% | 1.54% | -0.26 pp |
| 2019-Q3 | 1% | 1.67% | -0.67 pp |
| 2019-Q4 | 0.75% | 1.84% | -1.09 pp |
| 2020-Q1 | 0.43% | 2.23% | -1.8 pp |
| 2020-Q2 | 0.25% | -0.33% | 0.58 pp |
| 2020-Q3 | 0.25% | 0.65% | -0.4 pp |
| 2020-Q4 | 0.1% | 0.87% | -0.77 pp |
| 2021-Q1 | 0.1% | 1.07% | -0.97 pp |
| 2021-Q2 | 0.1% | 3.81% | -3.71 pp |
| 2021-Q3 | 0.1% | 3.1% | -3 pp |
| 2021-Q4 | 0.1% | 3.48% | -3.38 pp |
| 2022-Q1 | 0.1% | 5.11% | -5.01 pp |
| 2022-Q2 | 0.73% | 6.21% | -5.48 pp |
| 2022-Q3 | 2.25% | 7.25% | -5 pp |
| 2022-Q4 | 3.05% | 7.86% | -4.81 pp |
| 2023-Q1 | 3.54% | 7.01% | -3.47 pp |
| 2023-Q2 | 4.05% | 6.03% | -1.98 pp |
| 2023-Q3 | 4.1% | 5.31% | -1.21 pp |
| 2023-Q4 | 4.35% | 4.05% | 0.3 pp |
| 2024-Q1 | 4.35% | 3.62% | 0.73 pp |
| 2024-Q2 | 4.35% | 3.81% | 0.54 pp |
| 2024-Q3 | 4.35% | 2.85% | 1.5 pp |
| 2024-Q4 | 4.35% | 2.41% | 1.94 pp |
| 2025-Q1 | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.7 pp |
| 2025-Q2 | 3.85% | 2.1% | 1.75 pp |
| 2025-Q3 | 3.6% | 3.22% | 0.38 pp |
| 2025-Q4 | 3.6% | 3.63% | -0.03 pp |
| 2026-Q1 | 3.96% | 4.09% | -0.13 pp |
| 2026-Q2 | 4.35% | 3.94% | 0.41 pp |
What this chart shows
This chart compares the RBA cash-rate target with year-ended headline CPI inflation and an ex-post real-rate approximation. It is intended as general educational information, not financial or tax advice.
The chart uses quarter-end month observations for the RBA cash-rate target, year-ended headline CPI inflation from the ABS all-groups CPI index, and an ex-post spread defined as the cash-rate target minus inflation.
Methodology and formulas
- For each quarter, the cash-rate observation is the RBA monthly-average target in March, June, September or December.
- Year-ended CPI inflation is the percentage change in the ABS all-groups CPI index from four quarters earlier.
- The ex-post real-rate approximation is the nominal cash-rate target minus year-ended CPI inflation.
Read the shared Finance Charts data and publication methodology.
Sources and attribution
Limitations
- The subtraction is an ex-post approximation, not a complete expected real interest rate.
- The cash-rate target is not a mortgage, deposit or business borrowing rate.
- Co-movement or correlation does not establish that one series caused changes in another.
- CPI measures price change for a representative basket and is not a household-specific cost-of-living index.
- The index reference period is September 2025 = 100; index re-referencing does not change inflation rates.
- This is the policy target, not a household borrowing or deposit rate.
- RBA Cash Rate special terms prohibit implied endorsement and improper commercial exploitation.